Despite unprecedented sanctions against Russia, international trade continues to bring Moscow hundreds of billions of dollars, writes Forbes.
When sanctions hit Russia's largest banks in 2022, it was expected that they would lead to a complete freeze of the Russian economy. Instead, the Russian economy continues to function, albeit in a limited mode.
As the publication notes, Russia reoriented its oil exports to Asia and began settling not in dollars. The 'shadow fleet' tankers avoided Western insurance and created parallel supply chains.
Meanwhile, experts believe that digital wallets and regional payment systems allowed bypassing sanctioned banks. The growth of the Chinese CIPS network (yuan settlement services), Indian rupee settlement systems, and domestic Russian fintech alternatives demonstrated an important lesson: sanctions are a powerful tool but not flawless.
Within Russia, the situation is different. Western brands disappeared from shopping centers, but within a few months, others took their place. Russian tech companies created analogs of food ordering apps, ride-sharing platforms, and e-commerce logistics.
In the domestic market, Russian payment systems and state digital banks filled the vacuum left by Visa and Mastercard. Consumers easily adapted, continuing to use cards or mobile wallets with new logos. In the international market, cryptocurrency platforms offered another channel, although volumes were small compared to oil and gas exports.
Sanctions remain an important leverage for the US. However, their effectiveness now depends not so much on Washington's unilateral decisions as on creating a global coalition. Countries unwilling to join the coalition create 'safety valves' that weaken the impact of sanctions: in 2024, the volume of bilateral trade between China and Russia reached a record $234 billion.