A common theme in conversations and analytical documents of recent days and weeks: Putin is in a deadlock. Both strategically and tactically — there are no steps that would improve his position. Although, perhaps, he does not think so, and any step by the Russian autocrat worsens not so much his personal position as that of the Russian people and the world surrounding Russia, which, according to Putin in Astana, is turning into one big «legitimate target» that should be «leveled to the ground» in case of a «military threat».
In Search of Escalation
However, it is precisely the feeling of this deadlock that intensifies the bubbling resentful anger — to get out of the stalemate, special steps are needed, and this means escalation. In which direction to escalate — this is a problem of state creativity, a question for the «elites», who must come up with ways to scare the civilized world (rather than how to get out of the deadlock) and further suppress resistance, even passive, within the country.
So the «elites» are busy, they are not up to plotting against Putin now, they are in a tense search for escalation plots and repressive tools, they even wish each other «Victory» with a capital letter in congratulatory addresses on birthdays. It could have been left unwritten and unspoken, but the invisible rules of the world imply precisely such a verbal usage, as if they were all under the supervision of an ever-present observer (not to be confused with a guardian angel — that's more complicated). Dissatisfaction is in the silences, no public words or actions, no hints that Putin is doing something wrong, and it cannot be. Domestic science and taxpayers' money work to prolong the life of the autocrat, that is, his eternal rule, hence — for now — the absence of a succession mechanism and the emphasis on the irreplaceability of the leader. Another, so to speak, «humanitarian science» is working on studying Putin's genealogy. The regime is not at all afraid of being ridiculous because it does not feel that it is comical. However, everyone else is not in the mood for laughter — the absurdity reaches the point where the ridiculous in its vulgarity and absurdity becomes frightening.
Putin as a Bernsteinian
Is time working against Putin? But in the Putin universe, there is a different dimension of time — it goes in circles («according to plan»), is in no hurry, and is insensitive to the depletion of the country's demographic, financial, psychological resources. A deadlock? But this is the way the regime exists: if you don't know how to get out of a deadlock — extend and deepen the deadlock state, move within it for years according to the same «plan».
President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. Photo: Press Service of the President of the Russian Federation
This is the plan. Movement in an endless deadlock is both Putin's tactic and strategy. Can anyone define the purpose of today's «Mother Russia» (Shaman), other than that it should be a «thorn for others» (Kurtukova)? What is «Victory», with which establishment representatives congratulate each other, having dragged us into this deadlock? What is «peace» if the confrontation with the West is eternal? And why all this?
There is no answer and cannot be, because, as the «revisionist» Eduard Bernstein wrote for a slightly different reason, the ultimate goal is nothing, movement is everything. This Bernsteinianism is the strategy and tactics of Putinism: fundamentally not to get out of the deadlock, because otherwise the familiar construction will begin to collapse. As soon as you get out of the deadlock, reach an intermediate goal — «Victory», a host of poorly solvable problems falls on the regime, from the return of giant masses of people from the front to finding new reasons to mobilize the masses around the flag.
Fuel of the Regime
Resentful anger becomes the fuel for movement within the deadlock, sometimes accelerating it, which, however, does not affect achieving that very ultimate goal, because it does not exist. The conflict with Armenia, which decided to change its «native harbor» and gradually departs in a western direction, is an example of the kind of wood that is thrown into the eternal engine of resentment, offense, and hating.
There must be someone to be offended by, someone to hate, someone to threaten, someone to «level to the ground», and someone to ban the import of apricots, cognac, flowers, and «Jermuk» — without all this, the Putin system stops moving, it needs refueling stations, and now the «Armenia» station has become one. Then someone or something else will appear.
The imperial substance must constantly remind that it is the navel of the universe in a theoretically multipolar world, and everyone else are vassals and therefore must be within the zone of influence (euphemistically called «strategic partnership» or «centuries-old bonds of friendship»). Otherwise... You know what happened to Ukraine when it chose the western vector of its development. Meanwhile, the stories of anyone joining NATO or the EU are long, tedious, stretched over many years, and do not at all require military intervention by the neighboring regime, which cannot come to terms with the fact that it is no longer an empire, and around it are self-determined countries and peoples.
Archive photo. November 2022, CSTO summit. Left to right: Stanislav Zas, Nikol Pashinyan, Alexander Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Emomali Rahmon. Photo: D. Azarov, Kommersant
In this context, a subtle plot is the relationship with Kazakhstan, which both officials and TV killers with a multi-million audience have repeatedly compared to Ukraine, threatening «on behalf», but without authorization, with the forcible return of originally Russian lands. But there must be at least some «strategic partners», and Kazakhstan has been chosen as one of them. And «Kemezham Ishemilievich», as Putin repeatedly called Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich Tokayev, is a friend. Judging by the pomp of the ceremonies, almost as much as Chairman Xi. Putin is also a friend — geography is not chosen. But Kazakhstan — and this, as Putin puts it, is already «economic substances» — is highly oriented towards the European Union. The EU is Kazakhstan's main trading partner, half of foreign investments are European, more than 4,000 companies with European participation operate in the republic, the International Financial Center (AIFC) in Astana operates on the basis of English common law. If for Dmitry Medvedev, for example, the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen is «von der Leyen», then for Tokayev, she is a partner. And the trip of the President of Kazakhstan in June is planned precisely to Brussels. Western investments that could go to Russia now go to Central Asia, and Kazakhstan is the undisputed leader here. And certainly not part of Putin's imaginary empire.
The world — and here Putin is right — is indeed multipolar. But Putin is not a pole, much less equal to China and the USA, which is, in fact, the claim. And the desire to be equal to the big and great, and most importantly — to be recognized as such, even at the expense of military force — is another, besides resentment, engine of Putin's machine, which does not know reverse gear. It is well known — Anerkennung, the struggle for recognition (according to Hegel), it is also «isothymia» — the desire to be recognized as equal, but also «megalothymia» — the desire to be recognized as «the mistress of the sea». And yet they do not recognize. So, more and more efforts will have to be made. If anything, «there are all means to level everyone to the ground» (from a speech at a press conference in Astana on May 29, 2026).
* Andrey Kolesnikov is considered a «foreign agent» by the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation.