The United States believes that Vladimir Putin's threat of retaliatory measures against Ukraine in response to the drone attack on military airfields has not yet been fully realized and is likely to represent a significant strike in multiple directions, reported Reuters American officials.
The timing of Russia's full response is still unclear, one source said it is expected within a few days. He noted that Moscow's attack will be "asymmetric": its approach and choice of targets will not replicate Ukraine's strike on Russian military aircraft carried out last weekend.
A Western diplomatic source told the agency that although Russia's retaliatory actions have already begun, they are likely to intensify with strikes on symbolic Ukrainian targets, such as government buildings, to send a clear signal to Kyiv.
Another senior Western diplomat predicted further devastating attacks from Moscow. "They will be massive, brutal, and ruthless," said the diplomat. "But the Ukrainians are a brave people."
Michael Kofman, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that in his opinion, Moscow might try to punish the Ukrainian security service SBU for its role in the attack last weekend. To send a signal, Russia may use medium-range ballistic missiles for the attack.
"They will likely try to strike back at the headquarters (SBU) or other regional intelligence service buildings," said Kofman, adding that Russia may also target Ukrainian defense production centers. Nevertheless, Kofman suggested that Russia's capabilities for retaliatory measures might be limited, as it has already deployed a significant portion of its military power against Ukraine. "Overall, Russia's ability to significantly increase strikes compared to what it is already doing—and has been trying to do over the past month—is quite limited," he said.
According to US estimates, during Operation "Web," up to 20 military aircraft were hit (Ukraine reports a different figure—41) and about 10 were destroyed.
On Thursday, Moscow denied reports of aircraft destruction and stated that the damage would be repaired, however, Russian military bloggers report the loss or serious damage of about a dozen aircraft, including those capable of carrying nuclear weapons.