A friend of mine was out shopping at a grocery store, still known among old Muscovites as the "fortieth," in the so-called "House of the Dynamo Society" between two KGB buildings. A monument of constructivism, also not unfamiliar to competent authorities. But here everything was completely blocked off, an entire block. Waving his string bag, my friend asked a nearby policeman: "How do I get to the grocery store?" To which the policeman honestly replied: "No way. And for a long time." This was because Putin had arrived for an FSB board meeting. A day before the historic conversation between Trump, Vance, and Zelensky.
The scandalous conversation in the White House collapsed the entire initial structure of possible movement towards a peace agreement, or rather, a deal. And this was even before the structure began to be built, even rare earth metals did not help. However, coupled with Putin's speech in his native department, where he is usually extremely candid and even ironic ("I want to report that the group of FSB officers sent on a mission to work undercover in the government is coping with their tasks at the first stage", December 1999) — it became clear: the Putin-Trump pact is practically in place. The presidents have different tasks, in any case, Trump needs to quickly get rid of the conflict to focus on other problems, and at the same time remove the rare earth business commission, but the pragmatic alliance is moving towards formalization. However, this alliance still hangs in the air without some additional supports. And here's why.
Former residential building of the sports society "Dynamo" (left). Moscow, 1930s.
Photo: Public domain, Wikimedia Commons
At the board meeting, among other things, Putin said:
«...We understand that not everyone is satisfied with the resumption of Russian-American contacts. Some Western elites are still inclined to maintain instability in the world, and these forces will try to disrupt or discredit the dialogue that has begun. We see this with you. We need to take this into account and use all the possibilities of diplomacy and special services to thwart such attempts...»
For intelligence officers, this is a non-trivial task — the main adversary, in the logic of the situation explained by the president, becomes almost a victim that needs to be protected from the "Western elites." A complete cognitive dissonance.
Again, in this logic, the States — are no longer the West with its "rules," but something separate. Something with which the world can be re-divided and then calmed down. These are different USA, something like the States in the terrible imaginary world of Philip Roth's novel "The Plot Against America," where the elections are won not by Roosevelt, but by Charles Lindbergh, leading the country to fascism. Probably, it won't come to fascism, but the change in the rules of the game is radical. It is no coincidence that Trump used the metaphor of a card game in an emotional conversation with Zelensky — you have no cards in your hands.
This suits Putin quite well, who has another not fully filled card — a contour one. And this is an important point because at the same board meeting the Russian president directly outlined his motivation — to change the "world architecture" for himself. And this change is happening as a result of the Special Military Operation:
«...Today's dynamic changes in the international landscape — are largely the result of the courage and resilience of our Armed Forces, our heroes...»
The task is almost solved. It remains to agree on the details. There is someone to agree with — with Trump's United States. The problem is that for a formalized agreement, Ukraine is missing. Trump and Putin do not recognize its subjectivity, but a peace treaty is impossible without this side. And movement towards a peace agreement is unthinkable without security guarantees for Ukraine. That is, without Europe. Because, judging by the conversation between Zelensky and Trump, the Ukrainian side did not receive such guarantees from the US, which complicated, and then, after the skirmish, disrupted the rare earth deal.
However, the Kremlin is too early to drink champagne: potential negotiations between Putin and Trump are also complicated. What will they talk about if Ukraine in such a scenario does not make concessions to the States? Trump cannot "wash his hands," because without Ukraine there will still be no deal. Will he wait, like Putin, for the next Ukrainian president? But in the conditions of hostilities, elections are not really elections, even technically — how do they imagine in the White House and the Kremlin the electoral procedures in trenches under fire and among millions of Ukrainian refugees in Europe (and there are also some in Russia)? And where are the guarantees that could appease the two heads of state ready to divide the world, that Zelensky will not win the next elections — all talks about "four percent," the growing popularity of Zaluzhny and other competitors are speculative. Everything can change a hundred times. Having "dynamited" from the "House "Dynamo" in Moscow and the White House in Washington the whole world, using a term from Leo Tolstoy's "War and Peace," die ganze Welt, the high contracting parties have not yet solved any problem, including — so far — the problems of bilateral agreements.
Trump and Putin. Archive photo: A. Nikolsky / RIA Novosti
Putin has his own problems. Their socio-economic dimension, including budget insufficiency, is clear from the speed and energy with which he discovered readiness to form his deal with Trump. And regarding rare earth metals, the development of which in Russia is in its infancy, not to mention that their extraction is very harmful in an environmental sense. And regarding aluminum, which also does not add environmental friendliness to the Krasnoyarsk region. The Kremlin is looking for a replacement for oil and gas (belatedly, due to disbelief in the Western invention — "green energy"), and sees it in this very "sale" of a new resource, which America shows interest in. Again America! Again, it is the strongest. And at the expense of "rare earths," Putin could outplay China, which is doing well with rare earth metals. And what about our friendship with Chairman Xi? It seems that tension in the "USA-Russia-China" triangle may increase.
In short, this is a complex puzzle. Trump, to use his expression, cannot just "wash his hands." He will still have to talk with Europe and Ukraine. One cannot solve global problems with negotiations with Putin alone. The "House "Dynamo" and White House pact is not capable of forming a new "world architecture." It will be necessary to take into account the presence of other players who still have cards in their hands.
* Andrey Kolesnikov is considered a "foreign agent" by the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation.